Sunday, August 3, 2008

Thoughts on the Braves

The good news is that we (that is, Braves fans) may see something like this again one day:


That was, for the uneducated, catcher Greg Olson leaping into the receiving arms of John Smoltz in 1991 as the Braves clinched a tie for the NL West pennant (later that day winning outright when the Dodgers lost to the Giants). The Braves famously went on to play in the "Greatest Series Ever Played", losing to the Twins, but becoming the first team to have the worst record in baseball in one season (65-97 in 1990) and advancing to the World Series in the next.

The good news, the only good news, from this week is that we may get to see something like that again. But it ain't gonna happen this year.

But there's light in the Tex-for-Kotchman trade. We just landed a solid defensive firstbaseman who is 25. He seems to be a .280/15-20 HR/80 RBI guy, which isn't great, but is serviceable. (Sid Bream, the Braves 1B in that 1991 season, hit .253/11/45 and .261/10/61 in '92.) And we've got Kotchman under contract through 2011.

And then there's cap space. The Braves just cleared plenty of it. Tex is making $12,500,000 this season. Kotchman? He's taking home a paltry 1.5 million.

What does that mean?

One of two things have to happen now: Either the Braves go for broke next season or we move to a serious rebuilding mode.

Option A, my favorite, is attractive because realistically we have a small window in which we can make a serious run. Here's the skinny:

Hudson's out for the rest of this year with elbow surgery, but looking to next year he's coming back fresh in July 2009 for his final few months with the Braves. That's like adding a legitimate number-1 starter at the trade deadline, ready for a possible final push.

We know Chipper's always battling injuries, but we also know that when he's healthy, he's still a force to be reckoned with at the plate. The man's a gamer, and while his days as a full-time starter are numbered, he's still got a couple more years in him. I think.

Smoltzie's gone for this year, but he's a competitor, and he's going to want to go out on his terms. That means, not retiring because of shoulder surgery. This man has altered his pitching style so many times he's probably lost count. I'm betting he'll do what it takes to make one last go at a full season. A season as a closer, no less, which means our ninth-inning troubles should be shored up next year.

We've got Kelly & Yunel rounding out the infield and one of the game's great young catchers in McCann. We've got a young guy named Jordan Schafer coming up in the outfield. And I'm hoping, hoping that Frenchy figures out how to be "The Natural" again.



That said, we've got cap space and a ownership group who has verbally committed to increasing salary, and we need a legit number one starter (Ben Sheets?) and another mid-rotation guy to go along with Jair. And we need a corner outfielder.

The Kotchman trade cleared the way for all of that.

Or, we can take Option B: rebuild.

The good news: we've got the building blocks in place. We've got good, young talent in six of the eight everyday positions. But we'll need to build some pitching. And that takes time. And so, if we go that route, it won't be long before the Braves are finishing behind the Nationals (the Nationals!).

But then, maybe one day, one glorious day, we'll see a catcher leap for joy in the arms of a young pitcher as the Braves return to glory.

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